The gold mining industry of the Kyrgyz Republic: economic potential and development prospects

Abstract
To assess the prospects and forecast of the development of the gold mining industry of the Kyrgyz Republic as the dominant sector of the mining industry, calculations were made using a revenue method to obtain the most plausible results in the 2013–2052 timeframe. By means of calculations, two scenarios are modeled: inertial and optimistic. The forecast of the development of the gold mining industry reveals three stages of its evolution. The first three years of the main volume of ore mining account for the existing mines (Kumtor, Makmal, Salton-Sary, Tereksay, Zhamgyr, Karakizak, Ishtamberdy). Further from 2016–2017 the vigorous growth of production volumes is forecasted; We will reach the highest productivity in 2022 – more than 40 tons of gold excluding production at the Kumtor mine and about 60 tons of gold, including Kumtor. Since 2023, a sharp decline in production volumes begins as the mining of deposits is completed. The end of the Kumtor field development, according to preliminary fore cast data, is taken in 2024 and, as a consequence, a decrease in the receipts of money to the budget and employment. Analysis of the forecast scenarios shows, first, the notion of long-term developmental consequences, and secondly, it allows us to understand what mechanisms of both the scale and the structure of the costs need to be used to overcome the constraints of further economic growth. For example, the infrastructure created through foreign investment, taking into account the support of mining developments, should be maximally integrated into regional development plans of the republic.

Keywords:
gold, reserves, deposit, forecasted resources, net discounted income, investments, employment, ore



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