Transformation of Technological Development and Substituting Innovations Emergence

Transformation of Technological Development  and the Emergence of Substituting Innovations 

 Abstract 
The paper establishes linkage between the emerging technological and innovative limits with economic parameters and explains their recent and future behavior. The work aims at finding the relationship between radical innovations 
and economic development as well as testing new methods to forecast the dynamics of innovations. The significance of the study is determined by the enhanced and profound focus on the development model components as well as by new approaches to evaluate the capacity and development  dynamics of such components. The research is based  on empirical data analysis and modeling by means of self-organizing neural maps. The paper presents the examples of the decline in technological and economic growth. A model describing the behavior of logarithmic growth curves in the framework of the proposed thesis is shown. The examples of growth decline in several industries are presented. The relationship between technological limits and growth limits is shown. The value of the work is determined by the possibility to create more accurate models for predicting economic and technological growth and apply new techniques to model and predict knowledge and technology evolution.  Results. The data on radical discoveries and innovations is presented. The application of self-organizing neural maps is evaluated and justified. Based on Neural Self-organized 2-D network (Matlab Neural Clustering Tool) the process of integration and flow of radical innovations is modeled, with forecasts being made until 2050. A prediction model based on neural maps oversaturation with neurons is proposed. The results can be used to predict technological poten-
tial in other technological areas with a wider range of technologies.  
Keywords 
growth limits, technological limit, growth waves, self-organizing neural map 
Funding 
The research was carried out with the state assignment IEIE SB RAS project XI.174.1.1 “Economy of Siberia and its regions in the conditions of external and internal challenge and threats: methodology, trends, forecast” АААА-А17-117022250133-9 

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