Forming-up Hierarchical Set of Models: Developing Strategy for Industry Specific Sector

Abstract 

The article focuses on the set of models to forecast industrial sector development in a global perspective based both on the modified model for national economic development (Optimization Inter-Sector Interregional Model – OIIM) and  on traditional production-transport type models in the natural indicators. Top-down transit from one type of model  to another one is carried out gradually and contains a number of “inter-stage” models. Each stage is characterized by  a bigger specification of sector indicators, i.e. initially by cost indicators and further by natural indicators. Besides, the study attempts a transit from the national economic model  with the maximum final consumption to the structure  of a sector model with the minimum expenditures, given a fixed level of demand obtained while solving the upper-level model. This transit is based on the ideas of forming-up “mutual” tasks, which enables external national economic links while forming-up the strategy of developing certain regions. The paper examines and gives commentaries to the Development Strategy for Timber Industry up to 2030 approved by Ministry of Industry and Trade (Minpromtorg)  
of the RF.  
Keywords 
national economic model, production-transport model, reflexive approach, mutual tasks, strategy of development, forest complex 
Funding 
The research was carried out with the state assignment IEIE SB RAS project XI.171.1.1 “Development, approbation and application in theoretical and applied researches of program and methodical complexes and information systems of the analysis and forecasting of social and economic processes” АААА-А17-117022250129-2 



References

1. Granberg A. G., Mikheeva N. N., Suslov V. I., Yershov Yu. S. Ekonomiko-matematicheskie issledovaniya prostranstvennogo razvitiya Rossii na osnove mezhotraslevyih modeley [Economic-Mathematical Research of the Spatial Development in Russia on the Base of the Inter-Sector Models].  International Scientific Conference “Inter-Industrial Balance – History and Perspectives’. April 15, 2010: Reports, Articles, Materials. Moscow, Institute of Macroeconomic Research Publ., 2011, p. 46–55. (in Russ.) 
2. Granberg A. G. (ed.). Proekt SIRENA: Metodologiya i instrumentariy [Project SIRENA: Methodology and Tools]. Novosibirsk, Nauka, 1991, 225 p. (in Russ.) 
3. Itskovitch I. A. Analiz lineinykh ekonomiko-matematicheskikh modeley [Analysis of the Linear Economic and Mathematical Models]. Ed. by A. Bakhtin. Novosibirsk, Nauka, 1976, 190 p. (in Russ.) 
4. Blam Yu. Sh., Mashkina L. V., Stoilova A. S. Specification of forecasts using national economy models in natural industrial indicators (in timber complex case).  Economics and Innovation Management, 2017, no. 2, p. 66–77.  (in Russ.) 
5. Stoilova A. S. Modeling the Hierarchy of Forecasts: From the One of the Cost National Economy to the “Natural” Industrial One. In: Suslov V. I., Gorbacheva N. V. (eds.) Economy of Siberia under the Conditions of the Global Challenges of the XXI century: Collected Papers in 6 vols. Novosibirsk, IEIE SB RAS Publ., 2018, vol. 4: Models and Methods of Studying the perspectives of the Social-Economic Development of Siberia and Russia as a Whole  and Separately for Industrial Complexes and Macro-Regions, p. 240–253. (in Russ.) 
6. Proskurina S., Alakangas E., Heinimo J., Mikkila M., Vakkilainen E. A survey analysis of the wood pellet industry in Finland: Future perspectives. Energy, 2017, no. 118, p. 692–704. 
7. Packalen T., Kärkkäinen L., Toppinen A. The future operating environment of the Finnish sawmill industry in an era of climate change mitigation policies. Forest Policy and Economics, 2017, no. 82, p. 30–40. 
8. Peter B., Niquidet K. Estimates of residual fibre supply and the impacts of new bioenergy capacity from a forest sector transportation model of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Forest Policy and Economics, 2016, no. 69, p. 62–72.
9. Kristöfel Ch., Strasser Ch., Schmid E., Morawetz U. The wood pellet market in Austria:  A structural market model analysis. Energy Policy, 2016, no. 88, p. 402–412. 
10. Sun L., Niquidet K. Elasticity of import demand for wood pellets by the European Union. Forest Policy and Economics, 2017, no. 81, p. 83–87. 
11. Proskurina S., Heinimo J., Mikkila M., Vakkilainen E. The wood pellet business in Russia with the role of North-West Russian regions: Present trends and future challenge Renewable and Sustainable Energy. Reviews, 2015, no. 51, p. 730–740. 
12. Xavier C., Maloney W. The Innovation Paradox: Developing-Country Capabilities and the Unrealized Promise of Technological Catch-Up. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2017, 217 p.