Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation of 2030 Forestry Development Strategy Forecasts

Abstract 
A step-by-step construction of data harmonized models makes it possible to gradually eliminate unnecessary information in terms of forest complex and at the same time to increase the functionality necessary for further calculations, with each model in the complex used for certain purposes contributing to the calculations of the forest complex. This article provides a step-by-step construction of the Optimization Interregional Intersectoral Model (OIIM) modification for the forest complex. The proposed stages contain a brief description of transition from the national economic model in value terms (OIIM) to the sectoral production-transport type model of the forest complex in volume terms (PTM-FC). The obtained results based on the industry model can be used to analyze the current economic situation, identify the gaps in the industry and project its future development. Besides, the article contains the results of preliminary calculations based on point industry model of the forest complex (PIM-FC), which were used to outline the development scenarios for forest complex until 2030 as described in 2030 Forestry Development Strategy. The analysis of the calculation data shows that the estimate of the domestic market and the volume of exports in 2030 Forestry Development Strategy seems to be overestimated; as a result, the growth rate set out therein may well be jeopardized. 

Keywords 
forestry, industry model, the hierarchy of models, 2030 Forestry Development Strategy, forecast analysis 

Funding 
The publication is prepared within the project no. XI.171.1.1 “Development of program complexes and information systems for analysis and forecast of socio-economic process, their testing and implementation in theoretical and applied research”, no. АААА-А17-117022250129-2 according to the research plan of the IEIE SB RAS 

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