Information and methodological aspects of RES power dissemination simulation using OMMM-TEK model
0000-0001-8899-7906 Abstract
The research topic is the increasing process of electricity generation based on renewable energy sources (RES) in the Russian Federation and its regions. This paper aims to develop a methodology for modeling new RES technologies in the initial period of their dissemination. Its application allows to estimate the scale of energy generation in the regions fr om the standpoint of national economy efficiency. The research methodology includes the application of parametric analysis in the framework of interregional input-output model of optimization with detailed energy sector. Its essence is to increase step by step the cost of a new RES technology in the competitive environment of traditional technologies until it leaves the optimal plan. The parametric process involves finding the threshold values of the RES technology cost in the region, passing by which the technology changes its intensity (efficiency) dramatically. A comparative retrospective analysis of RES technologies spreading in the country and regions is carried out. It is shown the importance of taking into account the installed capacity utilization factor when modeling technologies. Formal procedures for embedding it in energy technologies of the model are described. The trajectories of integrated effects fr om spreading of renewable energy technologies, obtained as a result of parametric analysis, can be ranked by region and used for selective investment policy on the part of the state. It should be aimed at supporting the development of energy on RES primarily in those regions wh ere the maximum integral effect is obtained.
Keywords
simulation of RES technologies, information and methodological aspects, OMMM-TEK, parametric analysis
Funding
The research was carried out with the state assignment IEIE SB RAS project XI.172.1.1 “Integration and interaction of the sectors systems and markets in Russia and its Eastern regions: restrictions and new opportunities” АААА-А17-117022250132-2
References:
- Granberg A. G., Suslov V. I., Suspitsyn S. A. Multiregional Systems: Economic and Mathematical Research. Novosibirsk, Siberian Scientific Publishing, 2007, 371 p. (in Russ.)
- Suslov N. I., Buzulutskov V. F. Tools for evaluating the economic efficiency of new energy technologies and the consequences of possible external shocks for the Russian economy. In: International Energy Conference of the All-Russian Open Permanent Scientific Seminar “Economic Problems of the Energy Complex (A. Nekrasov Seminar) – 2017”: conference proceedings. Moscow, Ankil Publ., 2017, p. 358–376. (in Russ.)
- Buzulutskov V. F., Suslov N. I. SONAR-TEK: Modeling and Analysis of the Problems of the Energy Complex in the System of National Economy. In: System Modeling and analysis of meso- and micro-economic objects. Novosibirsk, IEIE SB RAS Publ., 2014, p. 40–111. (in Russ.)
- Suslov N. I. Renewable energy in a country wh ere there are many traditional energy resources: more about Russia. EKO, 2014, no. 3, p. 69–88. (in Russ.)
- Lyubimova E. V. Siberia’s renewable energy sources: achievements and prospects. Region: economics and sociology, 2018, no. 1, p. 250–270. (in Russ.)
- Churashev V. N., Markova V. M. Analysis of the technological level of energy generation development: current state and forecasts for Russia and Siberia. In: Economics of Siberia in the context of global challenges of the 21st century. Collection of articles. In 6 vols. Novosibirsk, IEIE SB RAS Publ., 2018, vol. 3, p. 160– 173. (in Russ.)
- Lyubimova E. V. Electric Power Industry: economic shades of Russian trends. EKO, 2019, no. 9, p. 8–22. (in Russ.)
- Churashev V. N., Markova V. M. Remain cannot leave: to the issue of development of coal generation in Russia. EKO, 2019, no. 11, p. 63–93. (in Russ.)
- Suslov N. I., Chernyshov A. A. Interregional models of national economy with relationships of multi-industry complexes In: Simulation of interaction of multiindustry complexes in the system of national economy. Novosibirsk, Nauka Publ., 1992, p. 33–52. (in Russ.)