Integration potential of megaregional trade agreements in Asia-Pacific Region

Mikhail V. Tomilov

0000-0002-5048-984X

1. Economic Research Institute FEB RAS

Abstract Since the beginning of the XXI century, an increase in the number of new regional trade agreements has been recorded. At the same time, their quality content is changing significantly, which has led to the emergence of mega-regional trade agreements (MRTА). This process is particularly active in the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region (APR), where initiatives for the creation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) have emerged during this period. However, it is still difficult to assess their effectiveness in terms of obtaining potential positive economic results. The article's aim is to assess integration potential of APR MRTA within two stages. At the first stage, methods of econometric analysis were used to determine the economic proximity of their participants. At the second stage, a gravitational model of foreign trade was constructed to assess all trade barriers (tariff, non-tariff, etc.) within the group of integrating countries. Based on the results of integration potential assessment, the author defines the most promising existing multilateral integration associations in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as a hypothetical group of countries in the region, which will receive the greatest trade and economic effects as a result of integration under the assumptions adopted in the study. In addition, an approach to assessing the integration potential and determining the optimal composition of the countries participating in MRTA based on the criteria of proximity of their economic development levels and the size of trade barriers within the group is proposed, methodically justified and implemented.

Keywords: integration potential, trade barriers, APR, MTA.

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