Evolution of forecasts for the world and Russian energy development – a way to respond to economic challenges

Abstract
Based on the analysis of various reports of the large world organizations, the article shows that energy forecasting is an important part of forecasting social development, as it largely determines the development vectors of other sectors of national economy and the world as a whole. The paper gives the description and classification of energy development forecasts, i.e. the description of goals, benchmarks and scenarios, global economic situation during the forecast implementation period, etc. It is shown that many organizations have changed the prerequisites, guidelines and the vision of future energy development over time; as a result, the possible options for the development of world energy have been revised. The major uncertainties in the dynamics have led to the emergence of many forecast options, whereas new developments in the world give rise to new types of forecasts. Changes in the technological and spatial structure of generation, the structure of fuel and energy consumption, energy capacity, regional shifts in energy in the period 2000-2018 were analyzed. Key trends in energy development in Russia and the world were highlighted. It is shown that the conflict between new technologies and the previous energy systems is dampened solely due to the support of clean energy at both national and world economic levels by the major actors of the international community.
Keywords
energy, forecasting, scenarios, development trends, International Energy Agency (IEA), structure of fuel and energy consumption
Funding:
The research was carried out with the plan of IEIE SB RAS, project XI.172.1.1. № АААА-А17-117022250132-2