Evaluation of the impact of large infrastructure projects on the development of regions (on the example of the ESPO project)

Gulakova OLga I.
1. Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia
2. Novosibirsk State University
o.gulakova@g.nsu.ru
The material was received by the Editorial Board: 29/11/2018
Abstract 
A broad analysis of theoretical and empirical studies of the impact of infrastructure development on economic growth has revealed both positive and negative results. The main purpose of the research is to assess the impact of the major oil pipeline project on both national and regional economic growth and economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District in particular. The methodological basis of the study is the combination of project analysis (costbenefit analysis), spatial input-output  analysis with the use of  optimized cross-sectoral  inter-regional models, and econometric analysis.  As a result, potential market capacity in some partner countries of the Asia-Pacific region (China, South Korea, Japan) has been analyzed on the basis of market analysis framework of the project. The forecast of possible volumes of oil consumption has been presented. The comprehensive evaluation of the project efficiency has been obtained by accounting tax and indirect effects (growth in overall output) arising from its implementation. The study has shown that the contribution of the oil pipeline project to the economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District is relatively insignificant; it seems to be much more significant for the development of Russia rather than the development of the District. 

Keywords 
economic growth, regional growth, infrastructure projects, oil consumption, input-output balance, interregional relations, direct and indirect effects, public efficiency

Read article


References
  1. Gulakova O. I., Ershov Yu. S., Ibragimov N. M., Novikova T. S. Evaluation of the Social Effectiveness of an Infrastructure Project: a Case Study of the Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean 2 Oil Pipeline.  Regional Research of Russia, April 2018, Vol. 8, Iss. 2, p. 193–203. DOI.ORG/10.1134/S2079970518020053  
  2. Capello R. Regional economics. London, New York, Routledge, 2007, 322 р.  
  3. Munnel A. H. Market access and regional disparities. New economic geography in Europe. Hamburg, Institute of International Economics, 2004. 29  р. 
  4. Morgenroth E. The Regional Development Impacts of Transport Infrastructure: A Literature Review and Policy Implications. Dublin, Economic and Financial Evaluation Unit, Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport. 2014, September 9. 
  5. Puga D. European regional policies in the light of recent location theories. Journal of Economic Geography, 2002, no. 2, p. 373–406. 
  6. Aschauer D. Does public capital crowd out private capital. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, no. 24 (2), p. 171–188.  
  7. Aschauer D. Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, no. 23, p. 177–200. 
  8. Munnel A. H. How does public infrastructure affect regional economic performance.  New England Economic Review, 1990, September / October, p. 11–32. 
  9. Garcia-Mila T., McGuire T. J. The contribution of publicly provided inputs to state economics. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1992, no. 22, p. 229–241. 
  10. Pravakar S., Ranjan K. D. Economic growth in South Asia: Role of infrastructure. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2012, vol. 21, no. 2, p. 217–252.  DOI 10.1080/09638191003596994  
  11. Lining H., Duchin F. Regional development in China: interregional transportation infrastructure and regional comparative advantage. Economic Systems Research, 2009, vol. 21, no. 1, p. 3–22. DOI 10.1080/09535310802703395  
  12. Zander E. V., Koryakova E. A.  The development of transport infrastructure as a prerequisite for the socio-economic development of regions. Sibirskij zhurnal nauki i tekhnologij [Siberian Journal of Science and Technology], 2011, no. (34), p. 173–178. (in Russ.) 
  13. Semykina I., Silkin B. We have what we can.  Ekspert Sibir'  [Expert of Siberia], 2014, no. 9 (408), p. 20–22.  (in Russ.) 
  14. Roslyakova N., Goridko N. Economic growth of regions and transport infrastructure: regression analysis. RISC: Resources, Information, Supply, Competition, 2013, no 1, p. 157–161. (in Russ.) 
  15. Bulatova N. N. The development of regional transport infrastructure. Economic Bulletin of the East-Siberian State University of Technology and Management, 2017, no. 4, p. 30–38. (in Russ.) 
  16. Zaharova I. Yu., Lilyakova D. S.  Integrated development of the Krasnoyarsk region transport industry. News of higher educational institutions. Sociology. Economy. Politics, 2016, no. 1 (48), p. 18–23. (in Russ.) 
  17. Serikov P. Yu. On the assessment of the socio-economic impact of  infrastructure projects in the fuel and energy sector on the national economy. Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2015, no. 8-2 (61-2), p. 89–93. (in Russ.) 
  18. Shumaev V. Development of transport and infrastructure in the northern regions. RISC: Resources, Information, Supply, Competition, 2016, no. 1, p. 28–30. (in Russ.) 
  19. Meersman H., Nazemzadeh M. The contribution of transport infrastructure to economic activity: The case of Belgium. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 2017, vol. 5, no. 2, p. 316–324. 
  20. Skorobogatova O., Kuzmina-Merlino I. Transport Infrastructure Development Performance. Procedia Engineering, 2017, vol. 178, p. 319–329. 
  21. Devarajan S., Swaroop V., Zou H. F. The composition of public expenditure and economic growth.  Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996, no. 37, p. 313–344. 
  22. Dubrovskaya Yu. V., Kopnintseva N. M., Pozdeeva A. N. Transport infrastructure as a factor of economic growth of region. Humanitarian, socio-economic and social sciences, 2015, no. 1, p. 293–296. (in Russ.) 
  23. Del Mar Salinas-Jimenez M. Public Infrastructure and Private Productivity in the Spanish Regions. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2004, vol. 26, p. 47–64. 
  24. Cantos P., Gumbau-Albert M., Maudos J. Transport infrastructures, spillover effects and regional growth: evidence of the Spanish case. Transport Reviews, 2005, vol. 25, no. 1, p. 25–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/014416410001676852  
  25. Vilenskiy P. L., Livshits V. N., Smolyak S. A. Otsenka effektivnosti investicionnykh proektov. Teoriya i praktika [The assessment of the effectiveness of investment projects. Theory and practice]. Moscow, Poli Print Servis, 2015, 1300 p. (in Russ.) 
  26. Boardman A. E., Greenberg D. H., Vining A. R. et al. Cost-Benefit Analysis. Concept and Practices. 4th ed. Boston, Pearson Education, Prentice Hall, 2011, 541 p. 
  27. Brent R. J. Applied cost-benefit analysis. Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar Publishing, 1997, 336 p. 
  28. Florio M. Cost_Benefit Analysis and Incentives in Evaluation – The Structural Funds of the European Union. Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2007, 320 p. 
  29. Livshits V. N. Optimizaciya pri perspektivnom planirovanii i proektirovanii [The optimization for long-term planning and projection]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 1984, 224 p. (in Russ.) 
  30. Granberg A. G., Suslov V. I., Suspitsyn S. A. Mnogoregional'nye sistemy: ekonomiko-matematicheskoe issledovanie [The multiregional systems: economic and mathematical research]. Novosibirsk, Siberian Scientific Publishing, 2007, 371 p. (in Russ.) 
  31. Granberg A. G., Mikheeva N. N., Suslov V. I., Ibragimov N. M., Novikova T. S. The results of experimental calculations to assess the effectiveness of investment projects using interbranch interregional models. Region: Economics and Sociology, 2010, no. 4, p. 45–72. (in Russ.) 
  32. Komarov K. L. (ed.) Kompleksnyj podkhod k otsenke obshchestvennoj effektivnosti krupnomasshtabnykh zheleznodorozhnykh proektov [The integrated approach to estimate the social effectiveness of large-scale railway projects]. Novosibirsk, SGUPS Publ., 2015, 159 p. (in Russ.) 
  33. Suslov V. I. (ed.) Innovatsionnyj potentsial nauchnogo tsentra: metodologicheskie i metodicheskie problemy analiza i otsenki [The Innovative potential of the scientific center: methodological and methodological problems of analysis and estimation.] Novosibirsk: IEIE SB RAS Publ., 2007, 275 p. (in Russ.) 

References: Gulakova O.I. Evaluation of the impact of large infrastructure projects on the development of regions (on the example of the ESPO project). World of Economics and Management. 2019, vol. 19, no. 1. С. 76–88. DOI: 10.25205/2542-0429-2019-19-1-76-88